- The fiscal stimulus is going to lose its effect on the economy this year. https://upfina.com/us-fiscal-stimulus-declines-while-stocks-rally/ 9 comments wallstreetbets
- 79% of the first 104 firms to report earnings have beaten EPS estimates. https://upfina.com/are-economic-depressions-a-thing-of-past/ 12 comments wallstreetbets
- The yield curve inversion was a blip on the radar screen for most fund managers. https://upfina.com/beginning-of-new-economic-expansion/ 5 comments wallstreetbets
- Only 55% of boomers have retirement savings. https://upfina.com/a-great-gdp-doesnt-solve-retirement-crisis/ 94 comments wallstreetbets
- The labor market has been fantastic for workers who aren’t educated in schools. https://upfina.com/median-unemployment-duration-march-bls-review/ 6 comments wallstreetbets
- 72% of days this quarter have been positive which would be the most ever since 1928 if it’s maintained for the rest of the quarter. https://upfina.com/is-the-stock-market-overbought/ 15 comments wallstreetbets
- When the 4 week jobless claims average makes a 1 year high, while the unemployment rate is above its 12 month moving average and it’s below 5%, the average 1 year change is -20.16%. https://upfina.com/low-inflation-fueling-rally-but-stocks-could-fall-20-16-in-the-next-year/ 10 comments wallstreetbets
- 4 of the past 6 earnings recessions didn’t coincide with an economic recession. https://upfina.com/similar-set-up-to-2000-2008-or-2016 16 comments wallstreetbets
- The concept of singling out buybacks and lately even dividends is a mistake. Firms return capital to shareholders after they invest in their businesses and make acquisitions. You can’t force a firm to make investments that aren’t there. https://upfina.com/eliminating-buybacks-isnt-a-free-lunch/ 24 comments wallstreetbets
- Student Loans Impact On Millennials’ Homeownership Rate https://upfina.com/student-loans-impact-on-millennials-homeownership-rate/ 15 comments economy
- US Stocks At 70 Year High Versus Global Stocks https://upfina.com/u-s-stocks-at-70-year-high-versus-global-stocks/ 12 comments wallstreetbets
- Fund managers are the most bearish on the US dollar since 2002. https://upfina.com/next-move-for-the-dollar/ 6 comments wallstreetbets
- Retail investors' cash allocations hit a 33 month high which could be a contrarian indicator to buy stocks. https://upfina.com/is-current-stock-market-sentiment-a-contrarian-indicator/ 14 comments wallstreetbets
- If you average the past 5 cycles, housing stocks lead the stock market by 9.6 months. Housing stocks peaked on January 2018. https://upfina.com/this-is-a-leading-indicator-of-sp-500-peaks/ 10 comments wallstreetbets
- Cash is outperforming stocks and bonds in 2018 for the first time since 1992. https://upfina.com/cash-outperforms-stocks-bonds-first-time-since-1992/ 13 comments wallstreetbets
- The Fed is hiking rates when the ECRI leading index is at a 139 week low. Apparently Powell is happy with the economy even though growth is slowing. https://upfina.com/forecast-dependent-not-data-dependent/ 10 comments wallstreetbets
- Are you nervous about corporate debt? In 2007 there were 55 firms with AAA rated debt. Now there are 2. https://upfina.com/these-sectors-companies-are-most-exposed-to-higher-rates/ 24 comments wallstreetbets
- Even though the quits rate is high and the labor market is strong, 64% of workers fantasize about getting a new job every second of every day. https://upfina.com/is-there-supply-left-in-the-labor-force/ 4 comments wallstreetbets
- In a Betterment survey 48% of respondents said the stock market was either at the same level or down since December 2008. Only 8% where correct in saying it was up more than 200%. https://upfina.com/americans-are-least-concerned-about-economy-since-1991/ 52 comments wallstreetbets
- Do you think government debt will ever impact the American economy and stock market? While the debt has risen 8.3% per year from 1966 to 2018, the stock market is up 10% per year. https://upfina.com/the-debt-is-high-but-does-it-matter/ 9 comments wallstreetbets
- Is the yield curve an important economic indicator or have central banks made this indicator irrelevant? https://upfina.com/is-yield-curve-irrelevant-with-central-bank-intervention/?var=reddit 11 comments wallstreetbets
- Great news. GDP growth has been strong this cycle if you adjust for employment and public sector spending. Secondly, consumers have deleveraged in this cycle. https://upfina.com/alternative-view-gdp-growth/?var=reddit 10 comments wallstreetbets
- Do you think the fact that everyone follows the yield curve makes it a less predictive indicator? Can it be that easy to make a profit off of reading what everyone is reading? https://upfina.com/near-long-term-yield-curve-analysis-recession-risk/?var=reddit 7 comments wallstreetbets
- Are you bearish because of the flattening yield curve and high CAPE ratios? The Russell 2000 CAPE is at a record high. https://upfina.com/expensive-valuations-late-cycle-indicators/?var=reddit 19 comments wallstreetbets
- There’s a misnomer that because S&P 500 earnings growth is expected to peak this year (likely in Q3) that stocks will fall. This is untrue as the market already knows growth will peak. The change in estimates will affect stocks. https://upfina.com/avoid-investing-based-on-false-premises/?var=reddit 11 comments wallstreetbets
- Is 4.8% Q2 GDP growth too good to be true? Probably not but the growth is being helped by high energy prices which boosts industrial production and consumer spending on gasoline. It looks like the economy is doing well, but it’s not a utopia. https://upfina.com/is-this-as-good-as-it-gets-for-growth/?var=reddit 4 comments economy
- The Fed has sensibly decided to allow inflation to tick up above its 2% target because it has been below it for so long. With other advanced economies having trouble generating inflation, runaway inflation seems like an unlikely risk. https://upfina.com/the-feds-new-symmetric-policy-suggests-higher-inflation/ 18 comments economy
- Do you think stocks are rallying based on the recent weak inflation data from the CPI and PPI reports. It seems to imply fewer rate hikes this year. Since the curve is on pace to invert in 3-4 months, that’s a big help. https://upfina.com/growth-inflation-are-not-the-same/ 11 comments wallstreetbets
- Do you use the Leading Economic Indicators Index at all? https://upfina.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Leading-Indicators-Are-A-Great-Indicator.jpg 4 comments investing
- The American economy is being more centralized as the number of new businesses fall. https://upfina.com/the-us-is-in-secular-economic-decline/ 6 comments economy
- Are you bearish on oil since the economy is weakening and fracking supply is increasing? https://upfina.com/will-oil-prices-move-higher-in-2018/ 11 comments wallstreetbets
- Is the global economy slowing to a halt? https://upfina.com/global-economy-is-slowing/ 6 comments economy