Hacker News
- Political betting site PredictIt to shut down after CFTC withdraws approval https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements 128 comments
- PredictIt is shutting down after CFTC withdraws no-action letter https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements 17 comments
- PredictIt: How It Works https://www.predictit.org/About/HowItWorks?page=home 3 comments
- Can a Market Predict Political Outcomes? https://www.predictit.org/ 2 comments
- You can buy binary options on the outcome of the Mississippi abortion SCOTUS case https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7504/Will-SCOTUS-strike-down-Mississippi-ban-on-pre-viability-abortions-in-Dobbs 19 comments law
- Not stocks, but an extremely easy bet. Congress officially nominated Trump for a 2019 Nobel Prize nomination, so he won't get it in 2018 https://www.predictit.org/Contract/10417/Will-Donald-Trump-be-named-as-a-winner-of-the-2018-Nobel-Peace-Prize#data 47 comments wallstreetbets
- Who here had Spicer Puts? Your tendies just got extra Spicey https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5237/Will-Sean-Spicer-be-White-House-press-secretary-on-Dec-31,-2017#data 14 comments wallstreetbets
- Will a federal criminal charge be filed against Donald Trump, Jr. in 2017? https://www.predictit.org/contract/7183#data 8 comments politics
- Trump could be out by year's end https://www.predictit.org/contract/5367/will-donald-trump-be-president-at-year-end-2018#data 48 comments politics
- Heads up... Le Pen odds looking pretty attractive with Fillon officially out https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3568/Will-Marine-Le-Pen-be-elected-President-of-France-in-2017#data 28 comments wallstreetbets
- Prediction markets have "Yellen will be fed chair June 10" at $.29, when both Clinton and Trump have said they'll replace her with https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4178#data 6 comments wallstreetbets
- Predictit (binary options) is pricing HRC to win at 80+ percent probability https://www.predictit.org/browse/group/67/national 3 comments politics
- The stock market isn't enough of a crapshoot, so I give you politics https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4007/Will-Clinton-and-Trump-shake-hands-before-the-UNLV-debate#data 27 comments wallstreetbets
- PredictIt | Who will win the GOP Nomination https://www.predictit.org/market/1233/who-will-win-the-2016-republican-presidential-nomination 6 comments politics
- Which Party Will Win the White House? | 73% Democratic | 27% Republican https://www.predictit.org/market/1296/which-party-will-win-the-2016-us-presidential-election 8 comments politics
- PredictIt pricing about 2:1 against an OPEC reduction by June 31. Discuss. https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1846/Will-OPEC-announce-an-oil-production-quota-of-less-than-315-MBPD-by-June-30#data 5 comments wallstreetbets
- It's easy to get caught up in the reddit and media hype, but gamblers are suddenly giving Sanders a chance at 35% he'll win the nomination. Up from 12% in December. http://www.predictit.org/contract/723/will-bernie-sanders-win-the-2016-democratic-presidential-nomination#data 6 comments politics
- Probability of Bernie Sanders winning Democratic nomination climbs to 33 percent, Clinton down to 67 https://www.predictit.org/contract/723/will-bernie-sanders-win-the-2016-democratic-presidential-nomination#data 13 comments politics
- Thoughts on Predictit.org (Buy/Sell on political events) for "fun" investing? https://www.predictit.org 9 comments investing
- What is the real world difference between this and Augur? Why would the end user care? https://www.predictit.org/Home/Browse?marketGroupId=1001 11 comments ethereum
Linking pages
- 2020 polls: Trump campaign in free fall with one of the worst debate swings in history and collapse in baby boomer support | The Independent https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/2020-polls-trump-biden-debate-election-baby-boomers-b871319.html 1034 comments
- Stocks zoom higher as Wall Street predicts Joe Biden will win | CNN Business https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/02/investing/dow-stock-market-election/index.html 984 comments
- After Nevada Debate, Prediction Site That Values Candidates as Stocks Shows Bernie Sanders Winning Democratic Nomination by a Landslide https://www.newsweek.com/after-nevada-debate-prediction-site-that-values-candidates-stocks-shows-bernie-sanders-winning-1488282 621 comments
- The candidate breaking through in the Democratic debate? Bernie Sanders. - The Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/10/13/the-candidate-breaking-through-in-the-democratic-debate-bernie-sanders/ 159 comments
- Election 2020 polls: Who is winning the race for president? | The Independent https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/us-election-2020-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-biden-polls-b1012891.html 55 comments
- Election 2020 polls: Who is winning the race for president? | The Independent https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/us-election-2020-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-biden-polls-b997050.html 51 comments
- Donald Trump's Betting Odds Of Impeachment Are Skyrocketing http://uproxx.com/news/donald-trump-odds-of-impeachment-james-comey-firing/ 34 comments
- US presidential elections: why a Democrat is now favourite to win in 2020 http://theconversation.com/us-presidential-elections-why-a-democrat-is-now-favourite-to-win-in-2020-107031 13 comments
- Trump is a loser, say prediction markets | Mashable http://mashable.com/2015/09/16/trump-prediction-markets/#xmbvbkw1yakd 9 comments
- Who Will Be Trump’s Pick to Lead the Fed? We Asked Experts to Rate the Odds - The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/22/upshot/who-will-be-trumps-pick-to-lead-the-fed-we-asked-experts-to-rate-the-odds.html?amp%3Bsmtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes 6 comments
- Augur Weekly - How to Get a Head Start in the Primary Markets https://augur.substack.com/p/augur-weekly-how-to-get-a-head-start 4 comments
- Odds of Possible Mueller Investigation Outcomes on Online Betting Sites https://www.businessinsider.com/odds-possible-mueller-investigation-developments-online-betting-sites-2019-1 4 comments
- K Street Lobbying Shops Anticipating Democratic House http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/07/k-street-lobbying-shops-anticipating-democratic-house.html 3 comments
- Infographic: 11 Cognitive Biases That Influence Political Outcomes https://www.visualcapitalist.com/11-cognitive-biases-influence-politics/ 0 comments
- PredictIt Arbitrage http://blog.rossry.net/predictit/ 0 comments
- Long Augur. Augur is an open, global prediction… | by Nick Tomaino | The Control https://thecontrol.co/long-augur-405a9a58d886?source=rss----ce012282ea98---4 0 comments
- Updates and Lessons from AI Forecasting https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting/ 0 comments
- Aggregation Theory, Thin Protocols, and Recentralization: Augur Edition - Multicoin Capital https://multicoin.capital/2018/08/08/aggregation-theory-thin-protocols-and-recentralization-augur-edition/ 0 comments
- If Bees Can Prevent Bad Information From Going Viral, so Can We https://undark.org/2019/02/05/bees-collective-intelligence/ 0 comments
- In Reality: A New Worldview Just for You | by David Siegel | Shortfall https://medium.com/@pullnews/in-reality-a-new-worldview-just-for-you-ea72eeea04b1 0 comments