Hacker News
- Will we regret building our new site with Nextjs App Router? https://manifold.markets/ian/will-we-regret-building-our-new-sit?r=aWFu 2 comments
- Given an equation of 1 digit numbers, can DALLE-3 add? https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/upon-given-an-equation-for-addition 6 comments
- Prediction Market on LK-99 https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre 5 comments
- Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? https://manifold.markets/Mira/will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to 66 comments
- Will another Forbes 30 under 30 member be arrested for fraud before 2025? https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-another-forbes-30-under-30-mem 14 comments
- Will AI pass the Turing test by 2029 Jan 1? (Market on Kapor vs. Kurzweil bet) https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-pass-the-turing-test-by-202 21 comments
- Will the Musk Twitter deal close? https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-the-musk-twitter-deal-close?referrer=cos 6 comments
- Prediction market: We're unhappy with Firestore. What will we switch to? https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-database-will-manifold-be-prim 43 comments
- Show HN: Create your own prediction market in two minutes https://manifold.markets 72 comments
- Will half of Americans own crypto by 2060? https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-at-least-half-of-americans-age?r=VHVtYmxlcw 142 comments cryptocurrency
- A free to enter, 240 character, open-source iterated prisoner's dilemma tournament https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/which-240-character-program-wins-th 4 comments coding
- Betting market odds on if the superconductor is legit. (Room temperature + ambient pressure superconductor). https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre 2 comments futurology
- [Prediction Market]Will Erling Haaland break the Premier League goal record in the 22/23 season? (32 goals) https://manifold.markets/FRCassarino/will-erling-haaland-break-the-premi 54 comments soccer
- Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025? https://manifold.markets/intellectronica/will-at-least-10-world-cities-have 16 comments futurology
- Manifold Markets — Create your own prediction markets https://manifold.markets 5 comments futurology
Linking pages
- What Will Future Generations Think of Us? - The Atlantic https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/08/future-generations-climate-change-pandemics-ai/671148/ 313 comments
- Non-determinism in GPT-4 is caused by Sparse MoE - 152334H https://152334h.github.io/blog/non-determinism-in-gpt-4/ 181 comments
- The AI Forecast: What Humanity Predicts for Artificial Intelligence. https://www.statsignificant.com/p/the-ai-forecast-what-humanity-predicts 51 comments
- CO₂ Coin: Decentralized Carbon Capture Blockchains · Gwern.net https://www.gwern.net/CO2-Coin 49 comments
- What Do Prediction Markets Say For Crypto Post-FTX? A Meta-Analysis. https://www.statsignificant.com/p/what-do-prediction-markets-say-for 10 comments
- Evaluating a Decade of Hacker News Predictions: An Open-Source Approach https://eamag.me/2024/HackerNews-Prediction-Evaluator 8 comments
- My Vision for Web 10 - The Future of the Internet https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/my-vision-web-10-future-internet-brendon-wong 6 comments
- The Case for Legalizing Prediction Markets https://www.mikesblog.net/p/the-case-for-legalizing-prediction 4 comments
- The Passage Of Polymarket - by Scott Alexander https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket 0 comments
- Manifest 2023 https://www.manifestconference.net 0 comments
- The Passage Of Polymarket - by Scott Alexander https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket 0 comments
- P(doom) n=5 - Pablo Hansen https://macgyver.substack.com/p/pdoom-n5 0 comments
- Manifold Love - Retrospective - by Manifold Markets https://news.manifold.markets/p/manifold-love 0 comments
- Manifest, the Manifold Markets nerd festival « The Story's Story https://jakeseliger.com/2024/06/13/manifest-the-manifold-markets-nerd-festival/ 0 comments