Hacker News
- Is 99% a reasonable probability? http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/06/is-99-a-reasonable-probability/ 2 comments
- How Hard Is It To Steal a National Election By Mail? https://election.princeton.edu/2020/08/13/how-hard-is-it-to-steal-the-election/ 12 comments politics
- Electoral maps based on 2018 results http://election.princeton.edu/2018/11/07/electoral-maps-based-on-2018-results/ 3 comments politics
- Three advance indicators of the House outcome in 2018 http://election.princeton.edu/2018/07/11/three-advance-indicators-of-the-house-outcome-in-2018-point-in-the-same-direction/ 9 comments politics
- The Comey effect http://election.princeton.edu/2016/12/10/the-comey-effect/ 33 comments politics
- Sam Wang on predicting 99% chance of Clinton victory - "I did not correctly estimate the size of the correlated error – by a factor of five." http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/09/aftermath/#more-18786 52 comments politics
- The Nevada bonus is back http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/06/the-nevada-bonus-is-back/ 4 comments politics
- Slow train coming http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/03/slow-train-coming/ 8 comments politics
- 2024 Election Map http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/02/demographics/#more-18439 4 comments politics
- A Test of the Polarization Hypothesis http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/30/a-test-of-the-polarization-hypothesis/ 3 comments politics
- a Trump victory is now outside the yellow 95% confidence interval on Princeton Election Consortium. http://election.princeton.edu/history-of-meta-analysis/ 12 comments politics
- Three Reasons To Ignore Debate-Related Punditry http://election.princeton.edu/2016/09/25/three-reasons-to-ignore-debate-related-punditry/ 4 comments politics
- In state polls, Clinton is running 5.8 percentage points ahead of Obama 2012 http://election.princeton.edu/2016/08/16/clinton-runs-5-8-points-ahead-of-trump-in-red-states/ 4 comments politics
- State-poll snapshot: Clinton 336, Trump 202 EV; Meta-Margin +4.2% http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/31/state-poll-snapshot-clinton-336-trump-202-ev-meta-margin-4-2/ 16 comments politics
- Sam Wang: "The probability that Trump can catch up by November is 9%, and the probability that Clinton will remain ahead is 91%" http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/01/what-do-head-to-head-general-election-polls-tell-us-about-november/#comments 13 comments politics
- Indiana may not matter any more http://election.princeton.edu/ 3 comments politics
- An “Obama Unbound” effect – or Viva Obama? http://election.princeton.edu/2015/01/02/an-obama-unbound-effect/ 4 comments politics
- Princeton Election Consortium: Probability of Democratic+Independent control: 80% in an election today, 70% on Election Day http://election.princeton.edu/todays-senate-seat-count-histogram/ 14 comments politics
- Is Nate Silver a little too excited about his model? http://election.princeton.edu/2014/09/09/is-nate-silver-a-little-too-excited-about-probabilities/ 17 comments politics
- Why you’re wrong to get excited about (Nate Silver's) “60%” http://election.princeton.edu/2014/08/04/why-youre-wrong-to-get-excited-about-60/ 4 comments politics
- The risk to the GOP House majority: "If the election were held today, Democrats would pick up around 30 seats, giving them control of the chamber." http://election.princeton.edu/2013/10/08/the-risk-to-the-gop-house-majority 64 comments politics
- Gerrymanders: How many voters were disenfranchised? -- The disenfranchisement due to partisan-controlled redistricting was a total of 4.4 million voters from both parties. Democrats were disenfranchised more than Republicans at a ratio of 10:1. http://election.princeton.edu/2013/01/02/gerrymanders-part-2-how-many-voters-were-disenfranchised/ 62 comments politics
- Gerrymanders, Part 1: Busting the both-sides-do-it myth http://election.princeton.edu/2012/12/30/gerrymanders-part-1-busting-the-both-sides-do-it-myth/ 9 comments politics
- More guns = more firearms deaths. Why do we want to arm teachers, when the data says this will result in more death? http://election.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/gun_ownership_deaths_500px.jpg 80 comments politics
- "The popular vote was a swing of more than 6% from the 2010 election, which was 53.5% R, 46.5% D. Yet the composition of the House hardly changed – and the party that got more votes is not in control. This discrepancy between popular votes and seat counts is the largest since 1950." http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/09/the-new-house-with-less-democracy/ 3 comments politics
- Presidential prediction 2012 (Election Eve)--Absolutely Perfect Prediction http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/06/presidential-final-prediction-2012-election-eve-final/ 3 comments politics
- Princeton Election Consortium--Probability of Obama Re-election: Random Drift 99.2%, Bayesian Prediction 100.0% http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/06/senate-prediction-final-election-eve/ 3 comments politics
- "ELECTORAL PREDICTION (mode): Barack Obama 332 EV, Mitt Romney 206 EV. The mode is the single most frequent value on the histogram. It corresponds to the map below, and has a chance of being exactly correct." Sam Wang - who was off by 1 EV in 2008. http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/06/presidential-final-prediction-2012-election-eve-final/ 56 comments politics
- Today’s Electoral College Map: obama 309 romney 229 http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/ 19 comments politics
- Princeton Election Consortium: Obama +2.6% popular vote meta-margin, 318 electoral votes, re-elect probability 95% (random drift), 99% (Bayesian) http://election.princeton.edu 5 comments politics
- Princeton Election Consortium: "Nerds Under Attack!" -- National Review Online and others are attacking Nate Silver because they don't like what his model is predicting. http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/29/nerds-under-attack/#more-8151 68 comments politics
- Obama: 305 Romney: 233 http://election.princeton.edu/ 17 comments politics
- Princeton Election Consortium: Obama popular vote meta-margin +2.14, EV 300, Re-elect probability 90% (Random Drift), 97% (Bayesian Prior). http://election.princeton.edu/ 4 comments politics
- Princeton Election Consortium: Obama has a 97% chance of being re-elected http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/27/landfall/ 186 comments politics
- Princeton Election Consortium: Obama re-elect probability 95%ish, +1.78% popular vote, 299 EV http://election.princeton.edu/ 50 comments politics
- Princeton Election Consortium (predicted 2008 election outcome within 1 Electoral Vote): Obama re-elect probability now at >95%, popular vote margin +2.28%. http://election.princeton.edu 22 comments politics
- Princeton Election Consortium: Obama meta-margin now at 1.16% (up from low of .62%) and re-elect probability >84%. http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/17/pre-debate2-state-poll-snapshot-one-last-look/#more-7647 5 comments politics
- Princeton Election Consortium on probability of election outcomes as of 9:00 am on Oct 15: Obama 84%, Romney 16%. http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/15/the-passing-storm/#more-7552 22 comments politics
- Princeton analysis says Democrats have 74% chance of taking house http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/20/house-outlook-for-2013-take-2/ 70 comments politics
- The short-term presidential predictor - "As of today, the predicted “strike zone” is 314-347 EV and the November Obama re-elect probability is 97%." http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/29/the-short-term-presidential-predictor 3 comments politics
- Democrats positioned to retake the House http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/20/house-outlook-for-2013-take-2/ 317 comments politics
- 2012 Presidential Election State of Play: Romney experiences zero to negative bounce post-GOP convention, Obama has 88% chance of re-election http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/06/general-overview-sept-2012/#more-4991 4 comments politics
- Princeton professor accurately predicted the 2004 and 2008 elections, only off by one EV. http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/06/post-election-evaluation-part-2/ 2 comments reddit.com
Linking pages
- 2020 polls: Trump campaign in free fall with one of the worst debate swings in history and collapse in baby boomer support | The Independent https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/2020-polls-trump-biden-debate-election-baby-boomers-b871319.html 1034 comments
- Eliminate the Electoral College | HuffPost Latest News http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mike-edwards/electoral-college-votes_b_1917826.html 866 comments
- 2014 Midterm Predictions: Republicans Not Guaranteed to Win Senate | The New Republic http://www.newrepublic.com/article/119844/2014-midterm-predictions-republicans-not-guaranteed-win-senate 204 comments
- Nate Silver and Sam Wang now agree: Current polls show GOP Senate takeover - Vox http://www.vox.com/2014/9/29/6862781/republicans-senate-takeover-odds 150 comments
- What’s Wrong With 538? | Huffington Post http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_us_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74 146 comments
- Nate Silver and the Psychological Addiction of Checking the Polls | WIRED https://www.wired.com/2016/10/just-want-nate-silver-tell-everythings-going-fine/ 119 comments
- Sam Wang Is This Year's Unsung Election Data Superhero | WIRED https://www.wired.com/2016/11/2016s-election-data-hero-isnt-nate-silver-sam-wang/ 113 comments
- Nate Silver says the GOP has a 58% chance of Senate takeover. The Washington Post says 95% - Vox http://www.vox.com/2014/10/10/6955341/nate-silver-chance-democrats-win-senate 67 comments
- Election 2020 polls: Who is winning the race for president? | The Independent https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/us-election-2020-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-biden-polls-b1012891.html 55 comments
- It's Biden's to lose (and he still could): State of the race after the conventions https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/it-s-biden-s-lose-he-still-could-state-race-n1238768 55 comments
- Election 2020 polls: Who is winning the race for president? | The Independent https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/us-election-2020-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-biden-polls-b997050.html 51 comments
- How The Trump-Clinton Presidential Election Has Surprised Political Scientists : NPR http://www.npr.org/2016/07/17/484016283/-politics-has-become-celebrity-driven-how-2016-surprised-political-thinkers 36 comments
- Don't waste your money trying to beat Mitch McConnell: Play "democracy moneyball" instead | Salon.com https://www.salon.com/2020/08/29/dont-waste-your-money-trying-to-beat-mitch-mcconnell-play-democracy-moneyball-instead/ 31 comments
- Is 538’s forecast being driven by trendline assumptions? | by George Berry | Medium https://medium.com/@georgeberry_8550/overview-4fa5fa157fd1#.foo3qsxt0 28 comments
- The Election May Be Over, but Trump’s Blowup Is Just Starting | The New Yorker http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/the-election-may-be-over-but-trumps-blowup-is-just-starting 19 comments
- Nate Silver: Sam Wang's model showing Democratic Senate advantage 'is wrong' - Vox http://www.vox.com/2014/9/17/6333277/nate-silver-sam-wangs-model-showing-democratic-senate-advantage-is 18 comments
- Oct. 30: What State Polls Suggest About the National Popular Vote - The New York Times http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/oct-30-what-state-polls-suggest-about-the-national-popular-vote/ 17 comments
- Opinion | Why I Had to Eat a Bug on CNN - The New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/19/opinion/why-i-had-to-eat-a-bug-on-cnn.html?_r=0 15 comments
- March of the nerds | The Economist http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2012/11/politics-and-statistics 12 comments
- 2014 Midterm Elections: Republican Wave Won't Include Governorships | The New Republic http://www.newrepublic.com/article/119926/2014-midterm-elections-republican-wave-wont-include-governorships 10 comments