- After the first round of matches, the r/soccer Hivemind is doing better than the UEFA, FIFA and Elo ranking! We did it! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score 28 comments soccer
Linking pages
- 7 techniques for assessing frequency when quantifying (cybersecurity) risks | by Veeral Patel | Medium https://medium.com/@veeralpatel/7-techniques-for-assessing-frequency-when-quantifying-risk-2fdd0bf26c77 16 comments
- King David's %: Establishing a new symbol for Bayesian probability. https://laulpogan.substack.com/p/king-davids-establishing-a-new-symbol 7 comments
- Expanding the Zone: Do Shadows Affect Postseason Play? - Baseball ProspectusBaseball Prospectus https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/54487/expanding-the-zone-do-shadows-affect-postseason-play/ 5 comments
- DEEP DIVE on Predicting Elections: Betting Markets vs FiveThirtyEight https://maximumtruth.substack.com/p/deep-dive-on-predicting-elections 4 comments
- When should we create abstractions instead of duplication? – Philosophical Hacker https://www.philosophicalhacker.com/post/when-to-dry/ 2 comments
- First principles on AI progress https://dynomight.substack.com/p/scaling 1 comment
- How Feasible Is the Rapid Development of Artificial Superintelligence? – Center on Long-Term Risk https://foundational-research.org/how-feasible-is-rapid-development-artificial-superintelligence 0 comments
- Grading The 2016 Election Forecasts https://www.buzzfeed.com/jsvine/2016-election-forecast-grades 0 comments
- Brier Score: Understanding Model Calibration - neptune.ai https://neptune.ai/blog/brier-score-and-model-calibration 0 comments
- Who's Best at Predicting the Future? - by Jared Park https://forecastapp.substack.com/p/whos-best-at-predicting-the-future 0 comments
- Can You Trust Your Model’s Uncertainty? – Google AI Blog https://ai.googleblog.com/2020/01/can-you-trust-your-models-uncertainty.html 0 comments
- Our dangerous addiction to prediction - UnHerd https://unherd.com/2020/05/our-dangerous-addiction-to-prediction/ 0 comments
- On Personal Predictions | Ben Congdon https://benjamincongdon.me/blog/2022/11/30/On-Personal-Predictions/ 0 comments
- Against Forecasting Tournaments - by Jonathan Mann https://abstraction.substack.com/p/against-forecasting-tournaments 0 comments
- How to measure the accuracy of forecasts https://longform.asmartbear.com/forecast/ 0 comments
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