- "If a candidate is doing better in New Hampshire polls than he is in national polls, and that candidate does well in Iowa, that provides very powerful evidence that this increase in information works to the benefit of that candidate." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver#Creation_and_motivation 44 comments politics
Linking pages
- Prediction Markets · Gwern.net http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets 87 comments
- Blackmail fail · Gwern.net http://gwern.net/Blackmail 72 comments
- "Numbers Never Lie," except when ESPN uses their own ones to name Alex Smith the NFL's top QB http://www.awfulannouncing.com/2012-articles/october/numbers-never-lie-except-when-espn-uses-their-own-ones-to-name-alex-smith-the-nfl-s-top-qb.html 19 comments
- Black Mamba the tortoise | The Economist http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2015/12/statistical-analysis-basketball 8 comments
- Carlsen vs Karjakin And Crude Oil - Chess.com https://www.chess.com/article/view/carlsen-vs-karjakin-and-crude-oil 7 comments
- Book Reviews · Gwern.net https://www.gwern.net/Book-reviews#cat-sense-bradshaw-2013-are-we-good-owners 0 comments
- Airlines to public: please ignore this blog post | The Economist http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2015/01/hidden-city-ticketing 0 comments
- Prediction Markets · Gwern.net https://www.gwern.net/Prediction-markets 0 comments
- Why geeks are becoming (more) influential | by Justin Jackson | I. M. H. O. | Medium https://medium.com/i-m-h-o/a931f5e6d344 0 comments
- So you want to predict the Super Bowl? – The Official Blog of BigML.com http://blog.bigml.com/2014/01/31/so-you-want-to-predict-the-super-bowl/ 0 comments
- A dissident history of the Trump campaign and presidency (Part 1) https://neofeudalreview.substack.com/p/a-dissident-history-of-the-trump 0 comments
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