• "Leaders who come to power under irregular circumstances are more likely to default. Irregular leaders are themselves more vulnerable to turnover and therefore prioritize the short-term benefits of default rather than the long-term benefits of repayment." https://academic.oup.com/isq/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/isq/sqaa003/5741596?redirectedfrom=fulltext 7 comments 21/2/2020 science
• The theory that being single drives young men to commit political violence is invalid and not supported by the data. https://academic.oup.com/isq/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/isq/sqz034/5544866?redirectedfrom=fulltext 120 comments 9/8/2019 science
• Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament | International Studies Quarterly https://academic.oup.com/isq/advance-article/doi/10.1093/isq/sqx078/4944059 3 comments 7/5/2018 geopolitics

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